铜日报：利率决议凌晨落地，关注铜价的修复力度-20260319

Copper Futures Market Data Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The SHFE copper price fell slightly from 100,020 yuan/ton on March 17, 2026, to 98,720 yuan/ton on March 18, a decline of 1.3%. The LME copper price dropped from $12,918.5/ton on March 12 to $12,780/ton on March 17. In terms of basis, the premium copper discount remained stable at -60 yuan/ton on March 18, the flat copper discount strengthened from -110 yuan/ton on March 17 to -100 yuan/ton, and the wet copper discount strengthened from -175 yuan/ton to -160 yuan/ton. The LME (0-3) discount widened from -$102/ton on March 12 to -$113.47/ton on March 17, indicating overall weak basis [1][39]. - Position and Trading Volume: The LME position decreased from 293,259 lots on March 12 to 293,259 lots minus 8,255 lots on March 17, showing a contraction in position. After the copper price decline, the downstream buying interest picked up, and the trading volume may have increased [1][40]. Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply Side: The smelting capacity was operating at full load, as seen in Defu Technology on March 16. However, the supply of recycled copper raw materials was insufficient, leading to an increase in the price of domestic含税 recycled copper raw materials. The import window remained open, and the expectation of overseas supply inflow increased. Although the social inventory was at a high level, the actual circulating supply was tight, and the release of some warehouse receipts alleviated the supply pressure. The recycling of recycled copper in the Philippines and France increased the long - term supply potential [2][41]. - Demand Side: In the power sector, the Mengxi - Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei UHV project started on March 17, and the State Grid of Zhejiang planned to invest 51 billion yuan in 2026. The wind power demand drove growth. In the construction and automotive sectors, projects like Guangde Hengtong Copper and Chujiang New Materials focused on new - energy applications, with stable demand. However, in the consumer electronics - related fields, air - conditioner exports were affected by the Middle - East conflict, with a reduction of over 500,000 units. The willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices increased [2][42][43]. - Inventory Side: The LME inventory decreased from 324,289 tons on March 17 to 318,624 tons on March 18, a decrease of 1.75%. The SHFE inventory increased from 330,375 tons on March 17 to 334,100 tons on March 18, an increase of 1.13%. The COMEX inventory decreased slightly, showing a differentiated inventory trend [2][44]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the copper futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern. On the supply side, the supply of recycled copper is tight, but the import expectation increases, and the high inventory restricts the upward movement. On the demand side, power investment provides support, but some exports are frustrated. In terms of macro - sentiment, the decline in copper price stimulates inventory replenishment, but the overall attractiveness is limited. The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 98,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [3][45].