生猪期货日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The LH2605 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. There are both negative and positive factors affecting the market. Negative factors include supply pressure, weak demand, cost pressure, and pessimistic market sentiment. Positive factors include policy support, capacity reduction, seasonal factors, and cost support [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The daily hog futures price showed a unilateral decline. The opening price was 11,120 yuan/ton, the closing price was 10,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton or 3.14%. The price fluctuation range was 10,805 - 11,125 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation amplitude of 320 yuan/ton. The trading volume reached 141,410 lots, and the open interest was 202,762 lots. The closing price was close to the daily low, indicating that the short - selling force in the market was dominant. The price broke below the important psychological level of 11,000 yuan/ton, and the technical aspect was weak [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The national hog spot price was generally in the range of 9 - 12 yuan/kg. The prices in the main producing areas were mostly around 10 yuan/kg, which had fallen below the industry's break - even line. The prices in the northwest region (Qinghai, Ningxia) were relatively high, in the range of 12 - 16 yuan/kg; the prices in the main producing areas of the Northeast and North China were relatively low, in the range of 9 - 11 yuan/kg; the price in Hainan was the highest, reaching 16 - 18 yuan/kg [4] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Seasonal demand: March is the off - season for pork consumption. After the Spring Festival, the demand has declined. Although the resumption of school and work in factories has some support for demand, it is limited. - Slow progress of capacity reduction: As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, higher than the normal reserve of 39 million heads, at the upper limit of the green regulation range (101.6%), and the capacity has not significantly shrunk, so the medium - and long - term supply pressure has not been alleviated. - Unchanged slaughter rhythm: In 2025, the cumulative number of hogs slaughtered throughout the year was 719.73 million heads. The concentrated slaughter behavior before the festival continued after the festival, and the willingness of the breeding side to slaughter was still strong. - Enhanced policy regulation expectation: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs proposed that the target for the inventory of breeding sows may be further reduced to 36.5 million heads, a reduction of 3.11 million heads compared with the end of December 2025, and the expectation of capacity reduction has increased [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - Negative factors: Supply pressure (increase in slaughter volume, increase in average slaughter weight, inverted price difference between standard and fat hogs), weak demand (post - festival off - season for consumption, high slaughter volume but weakened stocking willingness), cost pressure (rising feed costs, intensified breeding losses), and pessimistic market sentiment (pessimistic industry expectations for the future, decline in piglet prices). - Positive factors: Policy support (strengthened regulation policies for breeding sows, price support from the reserve purchase policy), capacity reduction (deep industry losses will accelerate the reduction of inefficient capacity), seasonal factors (after the second quarter, as the supply pressure eases, prices are expected to gradually recover), and cost support (rising feed costs form a certain support for hog prices) [6]