宏观压制，绝对价格带动现货成交好转

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in crude oil prices and the downward adjustment of interest - rate cut expectations in the macro - aspect, along with concerns about stagflation, have led to a significant short - term decline in the absolute price of zinc ingots. As downstream consumption recovers, the spot market transaction activity has increased. The import of ore TC is still in a state of slight decline, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable. The smelting enthusiasm is high, and the ore end supports the zinc price. In the long run, without trading the recession, the overseas consumption is still optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$48.17 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,200 yuan/ton, a change of -670 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,230 yuan/ton, a change of -680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,190 yuan/ton, a change of -690 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -105 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On March 18, 2026, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,650 yuan/ton and closed at 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 545 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,120 lots, and the position was 65,911 lots. The highest price was 23,665 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,260 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 275,800 tons, a change of 7,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 118,025 tons, a change of -350 tons from the previous trading day [3]