运费加政策干扰下氧化铝成本支撑抬升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [8] 2. Core View of the Report - In the long - term, without considering recession trading, the Middle East production cuts lead to a medium - term reduction in additional supply, and the overseas power shortage causes a continuous upward trend in electricity prices, so there is still room for aluminum prices to rise. The policy adjustment and oil price fluctuations strongly support alumina from the cost side [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,510 yuan/ton, a change of - 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 200 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 40 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,520 yuan/ton, a change of - 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changes by 15 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,060 yuan/ton, closed at 24,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 25,110 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,650 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day is 287,273 lots, and the position is 307,325 lots [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of March 18, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 1.326 million tons, a change of 32,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 392,206 tons, a change of 850 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 436,625 tons, a change of - 3,700 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 18, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,715 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2,680 yuan/ton, in Henan is 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 2,730 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 2,770 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 298 US dollars/ton [2] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,081 yuan/ton, closed at 3,048 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton (0.66%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 3,117 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3,006 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day is 1,015,496 lots, and the position is 273,934 lots [2] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 18, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 18,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum is 18,800 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 24,500 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 58,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 74,600 tons [4] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 23,980 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 720 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas supply is decreasing. Mozambique's electrolytic aluminum plant has entered the shutdown stage as expected, Qatar's electrolytic aluminum plant has suspended further production cuts after a 40% reduction, and Bahrain Aluminum has cut production by 30%. The Middle East event continues, and the Hormuz Strait is still blocked, causing concerns about local raw material and energy supply. Overseas inventories are continuously declining, and the LME premium is at a high level, which is still bullish for aluminum prices. In China, the recovery of downstream consumption needs to be concerned. Currently, the social inventory is still increasing, while the aluminum rod inventory shows signs of de - stocking due to consumption recovery [6] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, 2,100 tons of delivery goods in Henan are traded at an ex - factory price of 3,050 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plants purchase 20,000 tons of alumina at a factory - arrival price of 3,030 yuan/ton and 3,130 yuan/ton respectively. Guinea will cut bauxite export volume in April to boost prices. Policy adjustments and oil price fluctuations strongly support alumina from the cost side. The blockade of the Hormuz Strait continues, and the risk of oil price driving up freight rates persists. In China, an alumina plant in Guangxi has been ignited, the oversupply situation continues, the social and warrant inventories of alumina are still increasing, the warrant contradiction accumulates continuously, and the spot flow pressure is not large [7]