油价持续走强加剧市场对于衰退的交易

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View - Last week, domestic copper inventories increased due to high copper prices and spreads, leading to cautious downstream procurement. The TC of the mining end continued to decline to -$60/ton, intensifying raw material shortages. The refined copper import window opened, and bonded area inventories decreased. The price difference between scrap and refined copper narrowed, inhibiting its economic efficiency, but the demand for taxed raw materials increased. The operating rates of copper processing sectors generally rebounded, with a significant increase in orders for refined copper rods, and the prosperity of enameled wires and brass rods improved. Terminal power and new energy orders provided strong support, while the construction sector remained weak. As downstream enterprises resume work and copper prices fluctuate and decline, procurement enthusiasm may recover. At the current copper price, it is recommended to increase the hedging volume to about two months of actual usage [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 99,120 yuan/ton and closed at 98,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous trading day's closing. The night session opened at 98,000 yuan/ton and closed at 96,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% from the afternoon closing [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The SHFE copper 2604 contract fluctuated and closed at 98,660 yuan/ton. The contango and backwardation of the inter - month spread alternated, and imports remained profitable. Spot market trading improved slightly. Sellers tried to hold prices, but some sold off, reducing the premium. Downstream replenishment willingness was limited, and high inventories suppressed spot prices. The import window remained open, and the expectation of future supply inflows increased. It is expected that the spot discount pattern will continue tomorrow [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Geopolitical Aspect - The risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities has suddenly increased. Iran's largest natural gas field was attacked by the US and Israel. Iran announced it would strike US - related oil facilities and listed the energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related oil and energy facilities in the region. US President Trump said he did not want further attacks on Iranian energy facilities but might consider listing more Iranian energy facilities as targets depending on Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz [3] 3.2.2 Federal Reserve Aspect - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, remaining on hold for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell clearly denied that the US economy was in stagflation, emphasizing that the policy stance was appropriate, and rate cuts required continuous progress in inflation. He said that if there was no progress in inflation, rate cuts would not be made. Most people did not think rate hikes were the basic expectation, but the possibility of a rate hike in the next step was indeed mentioned [3] 3.3 Mining End - On March 17, BHP, the world's largest mining company, initiated the environmental permit application process for a new concentrator at its Escondida copper mine in Chile. The project, worth about $5 billion, aims to address the decline in ore grade and maintain mine production capacity. Escondida has faced a continuous decline in ore grade in recent years, with the ore grade dropping to 0.93% in Q4 2025. The expected investment range for the upgrade project is $4.4 - $5.9 billion, mainly for building a new concentrator to replace the old Los Colorados concentrator. As a core part of BHP's $10.8 - billion ten - year growth plan announced at the end of 2024, the new concentrator will maintain Escondida's existing processing capacity of 460,000 tons per day, ensuring copper production remains within the permitted level. BHP chose to submit an environmental impact statement (DIA), which has a faster approval process than a comprehensive environmental assessment. If approved, construction will start in early 2027, and the first production is expected between 2031 and 2032 [4] 3.4 Smelting and Import - On March 13, workers at Glencore's Townsville copper refinery in North Queensland, Australia, went on strike after nearly a year of negotiations failed to resolve disputes over wage increases and working conditions. Union members stopped work at the refinery for 4 hours and then resumed operations. The union secretary said that if Glencore was not willing to improve its offer, the strike would continue, but currently, the union did not plan further actions. Glencore reiterated its commitment to reaching an agreement with employees and said the union's actions might damage the constructive cooperation relationship. The refinery has an annual production capacity of up to 300,000 tons of 99.995% pure copper cathodes [5] 3.5 Consumption - In February 2026, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 156,194 tons, a year - on - year increase of 92.1%; the cumulative exports from January to February were 343,624 tons, a year - on - year increase of 95.5%. In February, imports were 320,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%; the cumulative imports from January to February were 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Copper prices continued to decline, but downstream procurement did not improve substantially, with most buyers waiting and watching except for those with rigid demand. The futures spread narrowed to less than 100 yuan, and sellers were more willing to sell. Coupled with high inventories, the increasing supply - demand gap put pressure on premiums [6] 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 18,775 tons to 334,100 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 5,665 tons to 318,624 tons. On March 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 547,300 tons, a change of - 26,600 tons from the previous week [6]