EG供应下降预期仍存，关注装置变化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of EG supply decline still exists, and attention should be paid to device changes [1]. - The EG load continues to decline, and port inventory starts to decrease. However, downstream price increases are weak, and long - filament sales have been sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation in long - and short - fiber products. There are concerns about potential negative feedback on downstream production if high costs persist [1][2]. - The strategy is to cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. The fundamentals are marginally improving under high inventory, with the possibility of inventory reduction starting in March and increasing in April. Short - term attention should be paid to the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz and EG device changes [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,849 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton, +0.48% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,800 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton, +1.27% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was - 78 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 233 US dollars/ton (down 45 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 78 yuan/ton (down 109 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Polyester and weaving loads are recovering, but downstream price increases are weak. Long - filament sales have been continuously sluggish, and inventories of long - and short - fibers have begun to accumulate. If the cost side remains at a high level for a long time, attention should be paid to potential negative impacts on downstream production [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 1.011 million tons (down 57,000 tons month - on - month), and the main ports reduced inventory last week. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China total 139,000 tons, and at the secondary ports 18,000 tons, with expected inventory to remain stable or increase slightly [1].