债市回暖，国债期货全线收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is warming up, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market, but the rising inflation expectations may disturb the short - term sentiment [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 100.18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 and a growth rate of 0.61%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8999, with a month - on - month increase of 0.024 and a growth rate of 0.36%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.29%; DR007 is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.11%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.50, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.47%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change and a decline rate of 0.47% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides figures on the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratio, net positions ratio (top 20), and long - short positions ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][19][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents figures on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][26]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [49][62]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [57][60]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [66][69]. Strategy - Unilateral: The repurchase rate is falling, and the price of Treasury bond futures is oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].