Huachuang Securities·2026-03-19 08:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Li Auto-W (02015.HK) [1] Core Views - Li Auto reported a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 35 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The total revenue for Q4 2025 was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year but up 5.2% quarter-on-quarter. For the full year 2025, revenue was 112.3 billion yuan, a 22% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 69 billion yuan year-on-year [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Q4 2025 revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.2%. The full-year revenue for 2025 was 112.3 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year. The net profit for Q4 2025 was 0.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan year-on-year but an increase of 6.4 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - Sales Volume: - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 109,000 vehicles, down 31% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles was 250,000 yuan, down 19,000 yuan year-on-year and 28,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - Gross Margin: - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The vehicle gross margin was 16.8%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - Cost and Expenses: - R&D expense ratio was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, while SG&A expense ratio was 9.2%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] Future Outlook - New Model Launches: - The company plans to launch a new generation of L9 and a new version of L9 Livis in Q2 2026, with the L9 Livis priced at 559,800 yuan. The i6 model is expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2026, with monthly delivery capacity projected to reach 20,000 units [1][7] - Organizational Improvements: - Li Auto has restructured its R&D organization to enhance efficiency and reduce the iteration cycle for AI model training from two weeks to one day. Sales channel reforms are also underway to improve operational quality [1][7] - Sales and Revenue Forecasts: - The sales forecasts for 2026-2027 have been adjusted down to 500,000 and 520,000 vehicles, respectively. Revenue forecasts for the same period have been revised to 131.3 billion and 140.2 billion yuan. Net profit forecasts have also been adjusted to 0.96 billion and 3.81 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][7]