山东江苏烧碱去库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: After the export tax - rebate was cancelled on April 1st, due to the ongoing international geopolitical conflicts, overseas cracking units reduced their loads, tightening the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC. The export price increased significantly, and the new order transaction price of ethylene - based PVC rose a lot. Domestic ethylene - based enterprises also faced raw material supply limitations. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC improved, and some loads increased. The downstream demand gradually recovered, and the inventory pressure was relieved to some extent. The market sentiment was strong, but it was greatly affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by the international geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali units were expected to reduce their loads, increasing the export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising the export quotes. The reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises led to an increased expectation of load reduction for integrated caustic soda. The price of 50% caustic soda strengthened rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda rose slightly. The supply - side operating rate increased slightly and was at a high level year - on - year. The demand from non - aluminum industries increased after the holiday, and the alumina production was expected to improve. The caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, and the cost support for caustic soda strengthened [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,735 yuan/ton (-166), the East China basis was -95 yuan/ton (+106), and the South China basis was -5 yuan/ton (+46) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,640 yuan/ton (-60), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,730 yuan/ton (-120) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,960 yuan/ton (+30), the calcium carbide profit was 122 yuan/ton (+30), the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was 267 yuan/ton (+426), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was -235 yuan/ton (+48), and the PVC export profit was 155.7 US dollars/ton (+2.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 37.7 tons (-8.1), the social inventory of PVC was 63.2 tons (-0.4), the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.89% (+1.48%), the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.00% (-6.24%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 78.49% (-0.93%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 109.2 tons (+20.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,442 yuan/ton (-81), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -301 yuan/ton (+90) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 685 yuan/ton (+3), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/ton (+10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,133 yuan/ton (+9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 418.2 yuan/ton (+9.4), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 683.41 yuan/ton (-72.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 2,140.33 yuan/ton (+101.01) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 53.00 tons (-2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.90 tons (-0.90), and the caustic soda operating rate was 85.30% (-1.10%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate was 82.72% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 50.15% (+7.69%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 90.14% (+0.05%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Influencing factors: The cancellation of the export tax - rebate, geopolitical conflicts, raw material supply limitations, price and profit changes, and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Market situation: The export expectation improved, the cost pressure was transmitted, the supply shrank, the export continued, and the inventory pressure was relieved to some extent. The market sentiment was strong, but it was greatly affected by the Strait of Hormuz situation [3]. Caustic Soda - Influencing factors: Geopolitical conflicts, cost increases in overseas units, load reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises, price changes, supply and demand changes [3]. - Market situation: The export inquiries increased, the price of 50% caustic soda strengthened, the supply - side operating rate was at a high level, the demand increased, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. The cost support for caustic soda strengthened, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price with increased volatility [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5].