地缘局势依然紧张，市场维持强势

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the number of LPG ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remaining low, and the extent of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East increasing. As a result, the prices of crude oil and LPG in the external market remain strong, and the import cost continues to rise. The domestic spot prices showed a mixed trend yesterday. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the LPG balance sheet is gradually materializing. With the continuous increase in the import cost of propane and butane, there is also a negative feedback on the demand from downstream chemical plants, and the market will continuously seek a new balance. The notable increase in supply comes from the United States, but the U.S. export volume is approaching its production capacity limit and its product structure is different from that of the Middle East, so it cannot fully offset the supply gap in the Middle East [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On March 18, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 5500 - 5660; North China market, 5130 - 5600; East China market, 5610 - 6340; Yangtze River market, 6010 - 6360; Northwest market, 5100 - 5250; South China market, 6100 - 6280 [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was $1010/ton, up $12/ton, and butane was $1015/ton, up $12/ton, equivalent to RMB 7662/ton for propane, up RMB 85/ton, and RMB 7700/ton for butane, up RMB 85/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was also $1010/ton, up $12/ton, and butane was $1015/ton, up $12/ton, equivalent to RMB 7662/ton for propane, up RMB 85/ton, and RMB 7700/ton for butane, up RMB 85/ton [1] - The U.S. LPG shipment volume in March is expected to be 6.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.92 million tons. However, the U.S. export volume is approaching its production capacity limit (around 7.2 million tons per month), and its export product structure (mainly propane) is different from that of the Middle East (mixed propane and butane) [1] Group 4: Strategy - Single - side: Short - term shock is on the strong side, mainly on the sidelines - Cross - period: No strategy - Cross - variety: No strategy - Spot - futures: No strategy - Options: No strategy [2] Group 5: Figures - Figures include Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and Yangtze River civilian LPG spot prices; Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River, and Northwest ether - after carbon four spot prices; PG futures main contract closing price, index closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month spread, main contract trading volume and open interest, and total trading volume and open interest [3]