地缘冲突升级，美联储按兵不动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts are escalating, and Powell's remarks in the interest rate meeting have dampened the expectation of easing policies this year. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,050 yuan/gram and 1,110 yuan/gram [8] - Silver prices are also expected to oscillate, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 18,800 yuan/kilogram and 19,800 yuan/kilogram. It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [9] Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have suddenly increased. Iran's largest natural gas field was attacked by the US and Israel. Iran announced it would strike US-related oil facilities and listed the energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. The US President may consider targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, staying on hold for the second consecutive time. Fed Chair Powell denied that the US economy is in stagflation, emphasizing that the policy stance is appropriate and rate cuts require sustained progress in inflation. The possibility of a rate hike was also mentioned [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 18, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,115.70 yuan/gram and closed at 1,113.52 yuan/gram, a -0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,089.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,088.90 yuan/gram, a -2.21% drop from the afternoon close [2] - On March 18, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,309.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,980.00 yuan/kilogram, a -1.62% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 552,862 lots, and the open interest was 225,308 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,392 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,170 yuan/kilogram, a -4.05% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 18, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.261%, a -0.40 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.49%, a -0.40 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,753 lots, and short positions increased by 36 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 215,772 lots, a -9.34% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, long positions increased by 5,085 lots, and short positions increased by 2,041 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 887,270 lots, a -0.13% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,069.56 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,390 tons, an increase of 34 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 18, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 6.77 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 380.37 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.73, a 1.40% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.40, a -1.21% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 47,378 kilograms, a 20.87% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,668,560 kilograms, an 867.21% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]