地缘因素扰动情绪，碳酸锂价格度震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate destocking trend continues. Although the lithium carbonate spot market has not shown significant looseness, recent macro disturbances are frequent. Geopolitical wars have impacted the non - ferrous metals sector, and capital has rotated among sectors. The lithium carbonate market is driven by sentiment, and prices are in wide - range fluctuations. However, the trends of industry inventory destocking and tight supply - demand have not reversed. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. In the short term, interval operations are recommended, and short - term unilateral operations should be mainly on the sidelines [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 18, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 155,000 yuan/ton and closed at 150,120 yuan/ton, with a - 4.43% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume on that day was 205,889 lots, and the open interest was 307,422 lots (the previous day's open interest was 308,842 lots). According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is 4,020 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day were 35,769 lots, a change of - 696 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 151,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 148,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,180 US dollars/ton, a change of - 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - According to the latest SMM data statistics, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate output is reported at 23,426 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.1% and a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. The output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year [1] - The energy storage sector still maintains a good growth expectation, but the growth rate expectation of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down. This downward transmission has led to a weakened willingness of cathode material manufacturers and battery enterprises to replenish inventory, shifting from "replenishing inventory at low prices" to "purchasing on demand" [1] Inventory Analysis - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 98,959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 414 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,292 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,184 tons; the downstream inventory is 45,647 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,890 tons; other inventories are 37,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,120 tons. The downstream inventory has increased, while the smelter and other inventories have decreased, and the overall destocking pattern is still maintained [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly on the sidelines in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]