PA联盟价格较低，关注4月份高运力下的需求成色

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The PA Alliance has relatively low prices, and attention should be paid to the demand in April under high capacity. The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery, and investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly. The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to be strong, but there are uncertainties. The strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [1][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Price - As of March 18, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 49,092.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 42,436.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1905.30, 2137.00, 2342.00, 2475.00, 2316.00, 1693.30, 1525.40, and 1718.80 respectively [7] 2. Spot Price - On March 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1618/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2249/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3111/FEU. On March 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1556.49 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1109.11 points [7] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. From 2026 to 2029, there are clear delivery plans for ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and over 17,000 TEU. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships exceeds 40 [4] - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 3 weeks of March was 308,200 TEU, and the weekly capacities in weeks 12, 13, and 14 were 310,600, 282,100, and 331,800 TEU respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity was 326,200 TEU. In May, the average monthly capacity was 311,800 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in March and some TBNs in March, April, and May [5] 4. Supply Chain - The US government is considering sending thousands of additional US troops to the Middle East while Trump weighs the next move against Iran. After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies try to support prices in the off - season. Some large ships are transferred from the Middle East route to the Asia - Europe route, increasing supply - side pressure and potentially affecting European line freight rates [4][5] 5. Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of the Asia - Europe route has been relatively high, with the container trade volume in most months having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The peak - season contracts in June, July, and August are expected to be strong, mainly because the probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026 is relatively low, the delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026 is small, and the demand side has a high growth rate. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy and demand [6]