下游跟进偏弱，聚烯烃基差回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in Iran remains turbulent, intensifying the Middle - East conflict, leading to an increase in international oil prices and strong support for chemical products. The market logic of olefins lies in concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply - side contraction, which supports olefin prices. However, downstream demand shows a negative feedback, and the basis of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) has declined. The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing and long - hedging for LLDPE and PP [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Prices and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 8431 yuan/ton (- 65), and that of the PP main contract is 8628 yuan/ton (- 43). LL North China spot is 8300 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 8400 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot is 8550 yuan/ton (-50). LL North China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (+65), LL East China basis is - 31 yuan/ton (+115), and PP East China basis is - 78 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 82.4% (- 4.5%), and the PP operating rate is 70.1% (- 4.4%) [1]. - Production Profits: PE oil - based production profit is - 1064.0 yuan/ton (- 437.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 1054.0 yuan/ton (- 437.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 1746.2 yuan/ton (- 382.2) [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is - 807.7 yuan/ton (- 200.0), PP import profit is - 1304.6 yuan/ton (- 200.0), and PP export profit is 107.6 US dollars/ton (+25.7) [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream film operating rate is 26.8% (+8.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 43.4% (+3.1%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 40.5% (+2.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.3% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The number of domestic refineries' shutdowns, overhauls, or load - reduction devices has increased, and the expected operating rate will further decline. Imported resources are expected to be weak, and market supply is continuously tightening. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded, but due to rising raw material costs, the operating rate increase has not met expectations, and the LL basis has declined [3]. - PP: The supply - side reduction is more obvious. The preventive load - reduction of upstream production enterprises continues to increase, and the expected overhaul loss in March - April will continue to rise. The demand side has a gradual recovery in downstream operating rates, but due to large PP price fluctuations and downstream cost pressures, downstream procurement is cautious, and the PP basis has also declined [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously go long and hedge with LLDPE and PP. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [3]. 3.4 Figures and Their Sources - Figures in "Polyolefin Basis, Inter - period Structure": Include plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, PP East China basis, L05 - L09, and PP05 - PP09, with sources mainly from Flush and Steel Union [7][10][12]. - Figures in "Production Profits and Operating Rates": Such as PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH - based), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, PP weekly output, etc., sourced from Steel Union [15][18][21]. - Figures in "Non - standard Price Differences of Polyolefins": HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China, sourced from Steel Union [30][33][37]. - Figures in "Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins": PE East China import profit and loss, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, etc., sourced from Flush and Steel Union [39][40][49]. - Figures in "Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins": Include agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, plastic weaving production gross profit, BOPP film production gross profit, etc., sourced from Steel Union and Longzhong [60][61][72]. - Figures in "Polyolefin Inventories": PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE social inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, etc., sourced from Zhuochuang and Steel Union [75][82][83].