Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-19 09:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: The international oil price remains high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the international corn market price and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast production area is less than 30%. As the corn price rises to a high level, farmers' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply of grain increases. However, the feed enterprises' acceptance of high - priced grain is insufficient, and they mainly purchase for rigid replenishment. The deep - processing enterprises' operating rate rebounds, and the rigid demand supports the purchase price. The rumor of the release of overdue rice may suppress the corn price. The wheat - corn price difference has widened, and the feed substitution demand may increase, weakening the later corn demand. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. - Starch: As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the operating rate of the corn starch industry increases, and the supply - side pressure increases. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, the downstream demand improves, the downstream提货 volume increases, and the industry inventory decreases slightly. The starch market's upward momentum weakens recently, and it may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2384 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 18 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 1355055 hands (a decrease of 3537 hands), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 222047 hands (a decrease of 7947 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 78333 hands [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2719 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton), the monthly spread (5 - 7) is 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 1 yuan/ton), the trading volume of the active contract is 251737 hands (an increase of 3689 hands), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 21809 hands (a decrease of 692 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 4885 hands (a decrease of 1370 hands). The CS - C spread of the main contract is 329 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT Corn: The closing price is 463.5 cents/bushel, the total position is 1723308 contracts (an increase of 105847 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 257781 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average price is 2455.29 yuan/ton (a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton), the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2400 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton), the CIF price of imported corn is 2136.26 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1.9 yuan/ton), and the international freight of imported corn is 65 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Corn Starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2850 yuan/ton, 3040 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged). The basis of the main corn starch contract is 131 yuan/ton (an increase of 2 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main corn contract is 71.29 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2.2 yuan/ton) [2]. - Substitute Products: The average price of wheat is 2600.06 yuan/ton (an increase of 1.28 yuan/ton), the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 737 yuan/ton (an increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 18 yuan/ton (an increase of 1 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Sowing Area and Yield Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 432.34 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 36.93 million tons (an increase of 0.49 million tons); in Brazil, the sowing area is 131 million hectares, and the yield is 22.6 million tons (unchanged); in Argentina, the sowing area is 53 million hectares, and the yield is 7.5 million tons (unchanged); in China, the sowing area is 301.24 million hectares, and the yield is 44.96 million tons (an increase of 0.66 million tons); in Ukraine, the yield is 29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The corn inventory in southern ports is 69.6 million tons (a decrease of 19.6 million tons), in northern ports is 219 million tons (an increase of 19 million tons), the deep - processing corn inventory is 337.7 million tons (a decrease of 6 million tons), and the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 120.3 million tons (a decrease of 0.6 million tons) [2]. - Production and Trade: The monthly import volume of corn is 80 million tons, the monthly export volume of corn starch is 3008.6 thousand tons, and the monthly feed production is 30.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed and Processing: The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.06 days (a decrease of 0.19 days), the deep - processing corn consumption is 126.86 million tons (an increase of 4.91 million tons), the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 55.61% (an increase of 1.53%), and the starch enterprise operating rate is 58.8% (an increase of 3.07%) [2]. - Processing Profit: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 4 yuan/ton (a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton), in Hebei is 141 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jilin is 40 yuan/ton (an increase of 35 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.71% (an increase of 0.05%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29% (an increase of 0.01%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.82% (a decrease of 1.46%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.82% (a decrease of 1.46%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier said that the 2025/26 Brazilian corn production is expected to be 133 million tons, the same as the previous expectation, and the future adjustment tendency is neutral to downward [2]. - A survey by S&P Global shows that the US corn planting area in 2026 will reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January [2].