瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2605 rose 4.49% to close at 8,916 yuan/ton. After Iran attacked Saudi, UAE, and Qatari oil facilities related to the US, international oil prices fluctuated and rose. The resumption of Saudi oil exports to half of the normal level led to a slight correction in international oil prices. In terms of plastic supply and demand, PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons this week, with a capacity utilization rate down 2.32% to 80.07%. Downstream开工率 increased by 5.2% week - on - week, with the agricultural film开工率 up 7.9% and the packaging film开工率 up 3.1%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 575,400 tons, while social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 619,300 tons. With more PE maintenance plans, supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream is in the traditional "Golden March" peak season, and LLDPE supply and demand are acceptable. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, L2605 is expected to fluctuate with international oil prices in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价 of polyethylene: The current price is 8,916 yuan/ton, with a change of 485. The 1 - month contract price is 8,390 yuan/ton, up 462; the 5 - month contract price is 8,916 yuan/ton, up 485; the 9 - month contract price is 8,681 yuan/ton, up 506. - Trading volume is 978,112 lots, up 188,753; open interest is 356,744 lots, up 12,786. - 1 - 5 spread is - 526, down 23; 5 - 9 spread is 235, down 21; 9 - 1 spread is 291, up 44. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 491,208 lots, up 12,287; the short position is 494,670 lots, up 15,102; the net long position is - 3,462 lots, down 2,815 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 8,529.13 yuan/ton, up 162.17; in East China is 8,777.44 yuan/ton, up 208.84. - The basis is - 386.87, down 322.83 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 124.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.09; CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 1,039.25 US dollars/ton, up 7.25. - The mid - price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 1,281 US dollars/ton, up 30; the mid - price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia is 1,281 US dollars/ton, up 30 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical开工率 is 82.39%, down 4.52 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 43.37% (weekly), up 3.07; the开工率 of PE pipes is 18% (weekly), up 7.83; the开工率 of PE agricultural film is 26.81% (weekly), up 7.95 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 38.46%, up 0.61; the 40 - day historical volatility is 30.84%, up 0.18. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is - 4.6; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 45.51, down 4.63 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.07%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points from the previous period. - From March 6th to 12th, the average开工率 of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 5.2% from the previous period. - As of March 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 575,400 tons, a 7.31% increase from last week; as of March 13th, the social inventory of PE was 619,300 tons, a 6.58% decrease from the previous period. - From March 6th to 12th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 14.37% to 9,306 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 46 yuan/ton to - 1,329 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.14% to 6,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1,211 yuan/ton to 1,446 yuan/ton [2]