瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market tumbled in the afternoon. The Shanghai Gold Main 2606 contract fell 4.64% to close at 1,062 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver Main 2606 contract fell 10.35% to close at 17,984 yuan/kilogram. Due to the crowded long - positions in precious metals and the significant increase in the volatility of overall risk assets, some investors faced margin pressure and were forced to liquidate gold positions for liquidity, leading to a panic selling [2]. - The Fed maintained the interest rate in the March meeting, but the new dot - plot significantly reduced the bets on interest rate cuts this year and raised the core PCE inflation forecast. The "higher for longer" interest rate path was further strengthened, causing funds betting on the Fed's easing path to leave the market [2]. - The US February PPI data far exceeded expectations, with the overall and core annual rates hitting new highs, indicating rising inflation pressure and accumulating risks for PPI, CPI, and the Fed's core PCE. The probability of an interest rate cut this year has dropped below 50%, and there are even expectations of an interest rate hike [2]. - In the short - term, market liquidity tightening may increase selling pressure, but due to the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the anti - inflation demand in the context of crude oil supply games, and the repeated inflow of short - term safe - haven funds, there is still some support for the gold price. In the long - term, the bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact. It is recommended to wait for a full correction and then enter the market at a low price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1,113.52 yuan/gram, down 2.7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 19,980 yuan/kilogram, down 328 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 85,832 lots, down 5,098 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 68,152 lots, down 5,829 lots [2]. - Trading Volume: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 130,531 lots, down 16,401 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 552,862 lots, up 2,753 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 106,845 kilograms, up 1,530 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 346,920 kilograms, down 6,843 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1,111.89 yuan/gram, down 4.08 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 19,947 yuan/kilogram, down 407 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.63 yuan/gram, down 1.40 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 33 yuan/gram, down 79 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,069.56 tons, down 1.15 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,389.75 tons, up 33.80 tons [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 163,132 contracts, up 2,987 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 24,578 contracts, up 1,240 contracts [2]. - Supply: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - Demand: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - Dollar Index: The dollar index was 99.56, down 0.24 [2]. - 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.83, down 0.04 [2]. - Volatility Index: The VIX volatility index was 22.37, down 1.14; the CBOE gold volatility index was 27.98, down 2.58 [2]. - Price Ratios: The S&P 500/gold price ratio was 62.54, down 0.00; the gold - silver ratio was down 0.73 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the dot - plot showed only one interest rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively, with a more conservative interest rate cut path [2]. - The Fed raised inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denied that the US economy was in a stagflation state [2]. - US President Trump said that the US was considering further actions against the Iranian regime and authorized a 60 - day temporary exemption for the "Jones Act" [2]. - The US February PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.4%, a one - year high [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 100% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On March 19, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US [2] - On March 19, 22:00, the US January wholesale sales month - on - month rate [2] - On March 19, 22:00, the US January new home sales annualized total [2] - On March 19, 22:00, the US February Conference Board leading index month - on - month rate [2]