Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-19 09:08Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on March 18, possibly due to profit - taking. The commodity market is affected by the Iran war. The recent rapeseed meal futures have been oscillating at a high level with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended. The rapeseed oil futures have generally maintained a high - level oscillation recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discriminatory tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. The supply pressure of soybeans is increasing with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, which restricts the price of US soybeans [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict drives up international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to decline. The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, which is expected to tighten palm oil exports. Domestically, the spot market for oils and fats has a weak trading atmosphere, and the expected increase in the import of Canadian rapeseed in the later period adds supply pressure in the far - month [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 146 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is 5 yuan, down 11 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 16849 lots, up 1880 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 129361 lots, up 15965 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805 sheets, down 100 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 286 sheets, down 300 sheets. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 726.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5852 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10480 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10461.25 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5361.22 yuan/ton, down 27.75 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.87, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 626 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 237 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8880 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1600 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 610 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 36 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 25.58%, down 1.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 25.76%, down 1.72%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 29.21%, up 1.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.64%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.85%, up 0.03% [2]. Industry News - On March 18 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, possibly due to profit - taking. The futures price fluctuated between gains and losses during the day because the commodity market was continuously affected by the Iran war. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract closed down 3.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.20 Canadian dollars per ton. The attacks on Middle - East energy infrastructure increased the risk of further disruption of energy supply in the region, driving up oil prices and boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans and continued to restrict the price of the US soybean market [2].