瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The sugar price may experience short - term shock adjustment due to the unexpectedly high sugar import data in January and February, which brings pressure to the market, despite the possible upcoming first peak of sugar mill closures in the 25/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5417 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the main contract position is 372,106 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 15,641 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 16,342 sheets, with no month - on - month change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 118,317 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4103 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; that of Thai sugar is 4031 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 66; that of Thai sugar is 5106 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5315 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; in Guangxi Nanning, it is 5430 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10; in Liuzhou, Guangxi, it is 5450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. Brazil's total sugar export volume in the month is 222.97 million tons, with an increase of 21.22 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1305 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 78; that of Thai sugar is 1377 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 78. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 94; that of Thai sugar is 302 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 94 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar in February 2026 is 240,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative import volume from January to February is 520,000 tons, an increase of 440,000 tons or 563.1% year - on - year. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons, with an increase of 66.58 million tons; in Yunnan, it is 53.2 million tons, with an increase of 25.06 million tons. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi is 402.9 million tons, with an increase of 208.71 million tons; in Yunnan, it is 98.41 million tons, with an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359.04 million tons, with an increase of 228.74 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1342.1 million tons, with an increase of 296.4 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.53%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%; that of at - the - money put options is 9.62%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 10.51%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 10.33%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February 2026, China's sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons; from January to February, the cumulative import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons or 563.1%. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.35 cents or 2.40% to settle at 14.45 cents per pound on Wednesday. Brazil exported 724,280 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of March, with a daily average export volume of 72,400 tons, a 25% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 96,550 tons in March of the previous year. The total export volume in March of the previous year was 1.8344 million tons [2]