瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the macro - front, energy infrastructure in the Middle East was attacked, the US February PPI far exceeded expectations, and Powell sent a hawkish signal. The market expects a 50% probability of a rate cut this year [3]. - On the fundamental side, the Philippines enters the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. Indonesia's RKAB plan adjusts the quota, with an increase of about 25% - 30%, which can meet domestic nickel ore demand and ease supply concerns [3]. - At the smelting end, China has large refined nickel production capacity. With recent nickel price fluctuations and profitable production margins, refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, stainless - steel mills' profit has improved, and production has resumed after the holiday. New - energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, with ternary batteries contributing a small demand increase [3]. - Domestically, nickel inventories continue to grow, and spot premiums remain stable; overseas, LME inventories decline slightly, and spot premiums are lowered [3]. - Technically, with reduced positions and falling prices, the bullish sentiment weakens. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will be weakly adjusted in the short - term, breaking below the MA60 support, and attention should be paid to the 130,000 level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 131,550 yuan/ton, down 3,650 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,160 US dollars/ton, down 95 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 186,757 lots, down 11,470 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 50,020 lots, up 14,111 lots; LME nickel inventory is 283,950 tons, up 210 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,681 tons (weekly), up 1,912 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 18,744 tons, down 90 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 56,899 tons, down 295 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 134,900 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 135,000 yuan/ton, down 2,900 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.52 US dollars/ton, up 6.17 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 tons (monthly), down 134.67 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 858.34 tons (weekly), down 65.99 tons [3]. - The average import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton (monthly), up 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons (monthly), up 1,120 tons; the total ferronickel output is 21,400 tons of metal (monthly), unchanged [3]. - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons (monthly), up 11,020.74 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons (monthly), up 100,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons (monthly), up 110,900 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 645,600 tons (weekly), down 6,700 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable leading role in China - US relations, and the two sides will continue communication [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one rate cut this year. Powell said no rate cut before inflation improvement and he would not leave the Fed during the investigation. The "New Fed Wire" said the Iran conflict might prolong the Fed's fight against inflation [3]. - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, targeting three Middle Eastern countries. Trump allegedly doesn't want to attack such facilities again for now. Part of Iran's largest gas field was shut down after being attacked, and the US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones [3].