瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,180 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,027 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 95 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 47 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 292,404 hands, down 14,921 hands; the main contract positions of alumina are 268,233 hands, down 5,701 hands [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 163,575 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 430,237 tons, up 27,469 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,419.5 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 436,625 tons, down 3,700 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum are - 56,702 hands, up 7,453 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.07, down 0.3 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,000 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 50,319 tons, down 1,109 tons [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 416,425 tons, up 21,927 tons [2] - The positions of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy are 5,075 hands, down 192 hands; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,731 tons, down 4,121 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up 1,020 tons to 393,226 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,490 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 310 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 132.38 US dollars/ton, up 127 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 347 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.1%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - Alumina production is 8.0108 million tons, down 127,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of alumina is 83%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 7.3129 million tons, up 253,300 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 289,000 tons, up 23,200 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,300 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; China's export volume of aluminum scrap is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 150,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the import volume of alumina is 227,800 tons, down 4,600 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 204,900 tons, up 313,600 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 1.295 million tons, up 33,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.402 million tons, unchanged [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The output of aluminum products is 6.1356 million tons, up 204,600 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 430,000 tons, down 110,000 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 270,800 tons, down 394,100 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 25,500 tons, down 5,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 1.26 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 1.825 million tons, unchanged [2] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days is 24.33%, up 2.05 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 40 days is 31.86%, up 0.57 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 18.33%, down 0.0439; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.68, up 0.0037 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. One member opposes and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - The Federal Reserve raises inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denies the US economy is in stagflation [2] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says China and the US will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China [2] - The Federal Reserve raises the core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and also raises the GDP growth rate expectations [2] - The US PPI in February rises 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year, exceeding expectations [2]