瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to short - time enterprise glitches, urea production is expected to continue to decrease. Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled the market trading sentiment. However, the high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continued to decline this week, the market trading atmosphere is fair, the overall shipment of urea factories is smooth, and some factories have tight supplies. In the short - term, driven by rigid demand and international market sentiment, urea is expected to maintain a balance between production and sales, with tight supplies in some areas affected by maintenance, and the overall inventory may continue to decline. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1840 - 1900 in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1859 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 228,441 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 583 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,890. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8,499 sheets, with no change [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1870 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1860 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 1880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it is 1880 yuan/ton, with no change; in Anhui, it is 1870 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 570 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 645 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 18.9 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons; the enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 93.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 219,700 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,289,610 tons, with an increase of 271,170 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 45.56%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.54%; the melamine operating rate is 53.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 286 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 534 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.1799 million tons, with an increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, with an increase of 2,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons, or 15.53%. As of March 19, the inventory of Chinese urea port samples was 16.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons, or 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,200 tons, or 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 92.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]