瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The freight index (European line) futures price fluctuated slightly on Thursday, with the main contract EC2604 down 1.45% and the far - month contracts down between - 2% and - 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 11.03 points from last week, up 0.7% month - on - month. The geopolitical situation remains risky, oil price cost pressure is high, and the supply - demand pattern in the short term has shifted from off - season looseness to tight balance, strengthening the shipping companies' bargaining power. However, due to the slight improvement in the geopolitical situation, the unchanged fundamentals of the shipping industry, and the limited upside space in March and April, it is difficult for shipping companies' price increases to materialize. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, the persistence of the US - Iran conflict, and the progress of Iran's regime change [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price decreased by 28.2 to 1915.000, and the second - main contract closing price increased by 5.8 to 2386.2. The spread between EC2604 and EC2606 decreased by 34.50 to - 471.20, and the spread between EC2604 and EC2608 decreased by 40.30 to - 451.00. The EC contract basis decreased by 9.70 to - 358.51. The main contract position decreased by 1272 to 19915 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) increased by 11.03 to 1556.49, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) decreased by 12.11 to 1109.11. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) increased by 221.16 to 1710.35, and container ship capacity remained unchanged at 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs). CCFI (composite index) (weekly) increased by 17.90 to 1072.16, CCFI (European line) (weekly) decreased by 18.53 to 1444.87. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) decreased by 40.00 to 2064.00, the Panamax freight index (daily) decreased by 38.00 to 1891.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships remained unchanged, and the average charter price of Capesize ships decreased by 2418.00 to 26582.00 [2] 3.3 Industry News - The risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities has suddenly escalated. Iran's South Pars gas field and some petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel. Iran announced it would strike US - related oil facilities and listed the energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched large - scale missile attacks on US - related oil and energy facilities in the region, and Iraq said the natural gas supply from Iran was completely cut off. US President Trump said he did not want further attacks on Iranian energy facilities but might reconsider targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A ballistic missile launched by Iran hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, an important liquefied natural gas hub, causing a fire and "severe damage". Iran also successfully attacked the US - exclusive area of the Riyadh Oil and Gas Joint Refinery in the suburbs of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The attacks on the refinery destroyed the fighter fuel reserve, paralyzing or severely hindering the US military fighter fuel supply process [2] - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, staying unchanged for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The committee members voted 11 - 1 to pass the rate decision, with Fed Governor Milan opposing and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The statement pointed out that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, inflation is still relatively high, and there is high uncertainty in the economic outlook, especially regarding the impact of the Middle - East situation on the US economy [2] 3.4 Key Points of Attention - On March 20th, pay attention to China's one - year loan market quotation rate at 09:00, Germany's February PPI monthly rate at 15:00, the eurozone's seasonally - adjusted trade balance (in billion euros) for January at 18:00, and the UK's March CBI industrial order difference at 19:00 [2]