瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of stainless - steel futures is expected to adjust weakly, breaking below the MA60, and the support at the 1.35 position should be watched below [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 476 lots, an increase of 5 lots; the main contract position is 123,112 lots, an increase of 5,588 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 40,898 tons, a decrease of 12,643 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless - steel is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 134,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,100 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 645,600 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the two sides would continue to communicate on this matter [2] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest rate cut this year. Powell said he would not cut interest rates until inflation improved [2] - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, and the US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones [2] 3.7 Raw Material and Supply - Demand Analysis - On the raw material side, the Philippines is entering the rainy season, nickel ore grade is decreasing, and domestic nickel - iron plants' raw material inventory is tightening. Indonesia will significantly cut the RKAB quota next year, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost support. During the Spring Festival holiday, there are more steel mill overhauls, and the output decline is obvious, which eases the supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and stainless - steel exports will face pressure this year due to export policy adjustments. The current overall inventory level is basically the same as that of last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, the inventory is gradually entering the destocking cycle [2]