粕类日报：宏观扰动增加，盘面震荡运行-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply and demand, but the focus of market influence may lie in macro factors and subsequent soybean demand, with relatively high uncertainty [4][5] - The domestic spot supply is gradually tightening, and the market is reacting to potential supply shortages, with prices showing some support [6] - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will also fluctuate [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Prices: The soybean meal futures prices showed a downward trend, with the 01 contract closing at 3049, up 9; the 05 contract at 3042, up 6; and the 09 contract at 3009, up 5. The rapeseed meal futures prices also had some changes, with the 01 contract at 2380, up 12; the 05 contract at 2443, unchanged; and the 09 contract at 2438, up 11. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions also changed to varying degrees [3] - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant downward trend, while the monthly spread of rapeseed meal followed suit, mainly due to relatively high supply pressure [3] - Cross - Variety Futures Spread: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts (05 and 09) and the oil - meal ratio (01) also had certain changes [3] - Spot Spread: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as between soybean meal and sunflower meal, increased [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The US soybean carry - over inventory is estimated to be around 350 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations. The supply in South America has been affected, with some institutions lowering the Brazilian soybean yield, but the impact on the final yield is expected to be limited. The Brazilian old - crop has good export and crushing performance, while the new - crop export is expected to increase significantly. The demand for the old - crop in Argentina is good, but the new - crop yield has decreased [4] - Domestic Market: The domestic spot supply is gradually tightening, with the oil mill operating rate likely to decline after a short - term increase. The market transactions have increased, but the supply has decreased, and the inventory has shown a downward trend. The demand for rapeseed meal is generally average, with the oil mill operating rate increasing slightly, but the supply pressure still exists [6] 3.3 Logical Analysis - US Soybeans: The US soybean market continues to face downward pressure, and the driving force for further price increases is limited. The key factors are subsequent exports and demand [7] - South American Soybeans: The South American soybean quotes are relatively strong, but the overall changes are limited, and it takes time for inland pressure to be transmitted to the export market [7] - Domestic Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal fundamentals change little, but the spot supply is tightening due to uncertain soybean arrivals. The basis continues to rise, and the price is supported to some extent, but the sustainability is limited [7] - Domestic Rapeseed Meal: The domestic rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited pressure. The supply of rapeseed has increased, but the inventory is still at a relatively low level. The price has support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate widely [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: The fundamentals of soybean meal and rapeseed meal face certain pressure, but due to increased market disturbances, they are expected to fluctuate widely [8] - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM09 spread [8] - Options: Seagull put option (for reference only) [8]