油粕日报：关注近月到港：【冠通期货研究报告】-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The Brazilian truck drivers' strike may affect the transportation of soybeans and other agricultural products, and the adjustment tendency of soybean production in South America is neutral to downward [1]. - The supply of soybeans in April has changed from loose to slightly tight, the price of soybean meal has fallen from a high level but still has certain support, and attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean reserve release announcement [2]. - The short - term price of palm oil is expected to remain above 4,450 ringgit per ton, but global economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties may limit its upward space [2]. - In the short - term, the price of oils is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Soybean and Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 annual soybean production forecast for Brazil remains at 178 million tons, and for Argentina at 47 million tons, with a neutral to downward adjustment tendency [1]. - In the week of March 8 - 14, 2026, Brazil exported 3,011,011 tons of soybeans, 377,388 tons of soybean meal, and 235,161 tons of corn. In the week of March 15 - 21, it plans to export 4,325,555 tons of soybeans, 729,810 tons of soybean meal, and 180,852 tons of corn [1]. - Due to the delay in shipment, some April soybean ships are postponed to May, and the supply of soybeans in April has changed from loose to slightly tight [2]. Palm Oil - From March 1 - 15, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [2]. - The recent price of palm oil is expected to remain above 4,450 ringgit per ton, influenced by high energy prices and the favorable palm oil - gasoline price difference, but global economic and geopolitical factors may limit its rise [2]. Oils - Policy - related benefits in the bio - fuel field may be gradually realized with the high price of crude oil, and the short - term price of oils is expected to fluctuate at a high level, requiring attention to the Middle East situation around the end of the month [3].