焦煤日报：震荡下跌-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market showed a downward trend with a gap - down opening and continuous decline during the day. The recovery of downstream demand is the main factor driving the rebound of coking coal. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm and operating load of downstream industries in the next two weeks to verify the realization of the peak - season expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened lower and declined during the day. The number of Mongolian coal customs clearances decreased marginally, and the domestic coal production resumption continued. The domestic mine start - up rate reached 87.16%, a 4.84% increase from last week. Production and start - up were both higher than the same period last year. The mine inventory decreased by 235,900 tons compared with the previous period. Downstream coke enterprises and steel mills restocked last week, with inventory increasing by 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, there was no significant increase in coke production. Steel mill profitability rebounded, and the start - up rate increased by 0.63%, but the start - up speed was weaker than the same period in previous years. The weekly daily output of hot metal was 2.212 million tons. It is expected that steel mills with previous production restrictions will resume production during the peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", increasing the activity of the upstream cost side [1] 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal was 1,092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu was reported at 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1,159.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 140.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the coking coal start - up rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.59%, a 1.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 798,100 tons, an increase of 211,000 tons from the previous period [4] 3.3.2 Demand Data - From March 6th to March 13th, the daily average output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 639,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous period. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 639,000 tons from the previous period [5]