银河期货油脂日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the price of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical factors, with increased volatility and likely to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. P59 and Y59 can consider opportunities for high - level reverse spreads, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot price and basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8616, up 76; palm oil 2605 is 9796, up 104; rapeseed oil 2605 is 9854, up 74. The basis of each variety varies by region [2] - Monthly spread closing price: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 86, down 2; palm oil is 90, up 6; rapeseed oil is 146, up 5 [2] - Cross - variety spread: The 05 contract of Y - P is - 1180, down 28; OI - Y is 1238; OI - P is 58, down 30; the oil - meal ratio is 2.83, up 0.02 [2] - Import profit: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 96, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1140, with a disk profit of - 1396 [2] - Weekly commercial inventory of oils and fats: In the 11th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 88.6 tons, palm oil is 84.2 tons, and rapeseed oil is 28.2 tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International market: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the palm oil price to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton in the near term. Higher crude oil prices may increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel substitute, but weak global economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may limit the upside [4] - Domestic market (P/Y/OI): - Palm oil: Futures prices rose by more than 1%, inventory continued to increase, with a 3.68% increase week - on - week. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and no - order investors are advised to wait and see, considering P59 high - level reverse spreads [4][5] - Soybean oil: Futures prices rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume increased, the inventory decreased by 1.66% week - on - week, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread idea [5] - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices rose slightly. The inventory increased, the import profit inversion widened, and the basis is expected to weaken. Although there is support from low inventory and geopolitical factors, the increase may be suppressed in the future [6] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility [8] - Arbitrage: Consider high - level reverse spreads for P59 and Y59 [9] - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][17]