思摩尔国际：业务多点开花、费用管控优异，HNB放量可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the benchmark index [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.256 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.8%, while the net profit was 1.062 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit, excluding share-based payment expenses, was 1.530 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1.4% [1]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the contribution from HNB (Heat Not Burn) products, steady growth of proprietary brands, and an increase in market share in Europe. However, profitability faced pressure due to changes in product mix, foreign exchange losses, and additional litigation costs [1][2]. - The company expects to continue supporting strategic clients in promoting high-end HNB products globally, with a projected revenue of over 1.2 billion yuan from HNB products. The medical nebulization segment is anticipated to start contributing to revenue in 2026 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a net profit of 569 million yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit for the same period was 795 million yuan, up 5.1% [1]. - The brand business generated 1.637 billion yuan in revenue for the second half of 2025, with significant growth in the U.S. and Europe, while the ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business saw revenue of 6.605 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2025 was 34.1%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 10.7%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year. The sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 6.4%, 9.0%, and 10.7%, respectively [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.16 billion yuan, 2.57 billion yuan, and 4.41 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45.2X, 20.5X, and 11.9X [4][5].