钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪不佳，钢矿偏弱震荡-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar was weakly volatile, with a daily decline of 0.51%, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have changed, and the inventory inflection point has appeared. However, the improvement of demand is limited, and the upward driving force of steel prices is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was volatile, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the strong demand resilience, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil has improved. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from the low level. However, the supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was volatile at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.55%, the trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. At present, the previous positive factors have supported the high - level operation of ore prices. However, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the ore market are weakly stable, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will continue to be volatile at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - On March 19, Shenyang optimized and adjusted 5 housing provident fund loan and withdrawal policies, including raising the maximum loan amount, expanding the scope of "commercial - to - provident fund" loans, canceling the limit on the number of provident fund loans, supporting the purchase of parking spaces, and increasing the amount of rental withdrawal [7]. - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 8.8% and 6.9%. In February 2026, the domestic sales of new - energy vehicles were 483,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.4%. From January to February 2026, the domestic sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.126 million, with a year - on - year decrease of 27.5% [8]. - From January to February 2026, China's crude steel production was 160.335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. Hebei ranked first with a production of 34.2705 million tons, Jiangsu ranked second with 20.0901 million tons, and Shandong ranked third with 11.062 million tons [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,210, 3,190, and 3,334 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 10, and - 9 [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,220, and 3,313 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 4 [10]. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,980, with no change [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,200, with no change [10]. - Main variety spreads: The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 70, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,010, with changes of 10 and - 20 respectively [10]. - PB powder: The price at Shandong ports was 785, with a change of - 3 [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price (wet basis) was 772, with no change [10]. - Freight rates: The Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 12.63 and 29.70 respectively, with changes of - 0.70 and 0.01 [10]. - SGX swap: The price (current month) was 106.30, with a change of - 0.80 [10]. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.50, with a change of - 1.50 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,135, with a decline of 0.51%. The highest price was 3,145, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 648,797, the volume difference was - 211,703, the open interest was 1,449,246, and the open - interest difference was - 65,665 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,302, with a decline of 0.36%. The highest price was 3,315, the lowest price was 3,295, the trading volume was 287,920, the volume difference was - 70,431, the open interest was 1,143,177, and the open - interest difference was - 28,781 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 807.5, with a decline of 0.55%. The highest price was 812.5, the lowest price was 803.0, the trading volume was 193,106, the volume difference was 3,905, the open interest was 446,896, and the open - interest difference was - 8,625 [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [25][26][29]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making proportion of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [33][35][40]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is starting to decline but is still higher than last year. The demand has improved seasonally, but the high - frequency transactions are weak. The upward driving force of steel prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, focusing on demand performance [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand have both increased. The output of hot - rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week - on - week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns. The price has rebounded from the low level, but the subsequent trend of the high - inventory situation should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has declined, and the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has decreased again, but the overseas shipments have increased. The previous positive factors have supported the high - level operation of ore prices, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it will continue to be volatile at a high level, focusing on the performance of steel [42].