玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡偏弱-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (real estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the market rebound. The cost - side support is weakening, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations and short - term band adjustments [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks support the market, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. As the market sentiment towards the conflict fades, soda ash may face downward oscillations and adjustments [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - The glass main contract opened high and went low, showing an intra - day weak oscillation. The daily - line MACD and MA combination showed a resonance dead - cross, and the 120 - minute Bollinger Band opened, indicating a short - term weak oscillation signal. The pressure is around the 5 - day moving average of 1090, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band line of 1050. The trading volume decreased by 22,260 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 21,838 lots. The intra - day high was 1084, the low was 1053, and the closing price was 1065, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous day's settlement price [1]. - The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand. High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Short - term cost - side support is weakening, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations and short - term band adjustments. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and terminal demand recovery [1]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract opened high and went low, showing an intra - day weak oscillation. The daily - line MACD and MA combination showed a resonance dead - cross, and the 120 - minute Bollinger Band opened, indicating a short - term weak oscillation signal. The pressure is around the 5 - day moving average of 1240, and the support is around the 60 - day moving average of 1200. The trading volume decreased by 91,426 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 18,904 lots. The intra - day high was 1229, the low was 1204, and the closing price was 1217, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous day's settlement price [2]. - The core logic is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks support the market, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. As the market sentiment towards the conflict fades, soda ash may face downward oscillations and adjustments. Attention should be paid to international energy price changes and whether the high inventory of soda ash can continue to be reduced [2].