每日核心期货品种分析-20260319

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 19, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market was significantly affected by geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which led to increased volatility in energy - related commodities [5][6]. - The prices of most commodities were influenced by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical tensions, and macro - economic policies. For example, the Fed's decision on interest rates and the situation in the Middle East had a major impact on the prices of metals, energy, and chemical products. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: The price of Shanghai copper was under pressure. Although there were some factors supporting the price, such as tight supply of copper ore, the weak demand from the terminal and the impact of geopolitical events and inflation expectations led to a short - term downward trend [8][9]. - Silver, Palladium, Platinum, and Tin: These metals saw significant price drops, with silver down over 10%, palladium down over 8%, and platinum and tin down over 7% [6]. - Gold: The price of gold fell by more than 4% [6]. - Carbonate Lithium: The price of carbonate lithium decreased by more than 6%. Supply growth, macro - economic interference, and weakening demand led to the price decline. Although there were some supply - side restrictions in Zimbabwe, the potential increase in domestic production and weakening demand were the main factors [10]. Energy - Crude Oil: The EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory, but a large decrease in refined oil inventory. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, led to a significant reduction in oil production in some countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the risk of price increase remained high [11][12]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): It rose by 10.99% and hit the daily limit [5]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): It rose by more than 10% [5]. - Fuel Oil: It rose by more than 6% [5]. - Asphalt: The supply of asphalt was expected to increase in March 2026, but the开工 rate was still at a relatively low level. The demand was gradually recovering after the Spring Festival. Due to concerns about raw material shortages in the Middle East, the price of asphalt was expected to be strong and volatile [13][14]. Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The downstream demand for PP recovered slowly, but the开工 rate of PP enterprises increased. The price of PP was affected by the increase in crude oil prices and the shortage of raw materials in the Middle East. Although there was some resistance from downstream customers, the price was expected to be in a strong - side shock [15]. - Plastic: The开工 rate of plastic decreased slightly. The downstream demand was gradually recovering, and the price was affected by the increase in crude oil prices and the shortage of raw materials in the Middle East. The price was expected to be in a strong - side shock [17]. - PVC: The supply of PVC increased slightly, and the downstream demand was gradually recovering. Although the inventory was still high, the price was expected to be in a strong - side shock due to the supply - side pressure caused by the situation in the Middle East and the recovery of demand [18][19]. Others - Apples: The price of apples rose by more than 4% [5]. - Methanol: It rose by more than 8% [5]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): It rose by more than 6% [5]. - Propylene: It rose by more than 6% [5]. - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal decreased. Although the supply was increasing, the demand from downstream was the key factor affecting the price. The market needed to pay attention to the downstream replenishment rhythm and the start - up load in the near future [20]. - Urea: The price of urea was in a high - level shock. The supply was sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors was strong. The market needed to pay attention to the verification of demand during the spring plowing season [21][22]. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all fell, with the CSI 500 index futures falling by 2.37% being the largest [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising by 0.10% being the largest [6].