山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals generally declined, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.64%, Shanghai silver down 10.35%, platinum down 4.66%, and palladium up 1.07%. [1] - In the short - term, trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is robust with persistent inflation pressure, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low. [1] - Iran rejected the proposal to de - escalate the conflict, and Israel claimed to have killed an Iranian security official. US and Israeli air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, leading to concerns about long - term Middle - East conflicts, rising energy costs, and stagflation threats. [1] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, stating that the Iran war has made the policy outlook highly uncertain. It expects inflation to rise, unemployment to remain stable, and one interest rate cut this year. However, this policy path faces high uncertainty, and traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - Precious metals are expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and maintaining a long - term upward trend. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Price: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all decreased. For example, Comex gold active contract closed at $4,823.90 per ounce, down $187.40 (-3.74%) from the previous day and $360.00 (-6.94%) from the previous week. [2] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes, and the positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D also changed. For instance, the position of Comex gold decreased by 1.48% from the previous week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [4] - Price: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D) declined. For example, Comex silver active contract closed at $75.42 per ounce, down $4.04 (-5.08%) from the previous day and $10.49 (-12.21%) from the previous week. [4] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads of silver changed, and the positions and inventories of different silver contracts also had various trends. For example, the position of Shanghai silver futures increased by 10.21% from the previous week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a buy - low - sell - high strategy with position management. [6] - Price: International prices (NYMEX platinum and London platinum) and domestic prices (platinum futures on the GZFE and platinum on the SGE) increased compared to the previous day but decreased compared to the previous week. For example, NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,113.20 per ounce, up $88.70 (4.38%) from the previous day and down $76.00 (-3.47%) from the previous week. [6] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads changed, and the position of NYMEX platinum decreased. [6] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [7] - Price: International prices (NYMEX palladium and London palladium) showed different trends. NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day and down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week, while London palladium decreased. [7] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads changed, and the position and inventory of NYMEX palladium increased. [7] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed - related data: The federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets were 6,697.506 billion US dollars, up 1.8079 billion US dollars (0.00%) from the previous week. [8] - US economic indicators: GDP growth, inflation data (such as CPI, PCE), labor market data (unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls), real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data all showed different trends. For example, the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate was 2.10%, down 0.30% from the previous week. [8][9][10] - Other data: Geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.94%, VIX index increased by 12.16%, CRB commodity index increased slightly by 0.03%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly. [10] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the federal fund rate remaining in different ranges at each meeting from April 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing that the probability of the rate remaining in the 350 - 375 and 375 - 400 ranges is relatively high in the near - term and gradually changes over time. [12]