软商品日报：震荡为主-20260319

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton industry inventory is continuously decreasing, the spot basis is stable, the downstream cotton yarn market has limited improvement, and spinning mills are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, with short - term fundamental drivers being limited. Due to the delay of Trump's visit to China, near - month demand growth expectations may not be met, but the decline in cotton prices is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] - The international sugar market is highly linked to the energy market. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, ICE raw sugar futures prices rose last night. In the short term, international sugar prices may follow the crude oil trend and maintain a range - bound pattern, and macro - sentiment changes need to be closely monitored. China's sugar imports from January to February 2026 were higher than market expectations [1] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand, especially in the international raw sugar market. The domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and sugar prices fluctuate with crude oil. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Cotton - Industry inventory is continuously decreasing, the spot basis is stable, the downstream cotton yarn market has limited improvement, and spinning mills follow a "use - as - you - buy" strategy. The quota issuance is confirmed, and short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The delay of Trump's visit to China may lead to a decline in cotton prices, but the decline is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] Sugar - The international sugar market is highly linked to the energy market. ICE raw sugar futures prices rose last night, and in the short term, it may follow the crude oil trend and maintain a range - bound pattern. China imported 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February 2026, an increase of 440,900 tons year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,134 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,255 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,486 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 365 yuan/ton. Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand, the domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [1][2]