尿素日报：验证旺季需求-20260319

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market shows high - level fluctuations. With the supply - demand dual - strong logic, attention should be paid to the verification of the peak - season demand for spring plowing. In the short term, it will remain in high - level oscillations. The agricultural demand is coming to an end, and in the future, the compound fertilizer plants' industrial demand will support the urea market. The strong performance of the energy and chemical sector drives the downstream purchasing sentiment, and combined with the support of the spring plowing peak season, the inventory continues to decline significantly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, ending the day with a decline. The upstream factory quotes showed a downward trend, and trading volume decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,800 to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily urea output on Feiyitong exceeded 210,000 tons. The state - reserve supplies will be fully released by the end of the month, resulting in an abundant market supply. Although the number of temporary shutdowns for maintenance at upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories continued to increase this period, but the Hebei region is still restricted by environmental protection warnings and has not seen large - scale resumption of production. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will reach over 50% after the warnings are lifted next week [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1,870 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, ending the day with a decline. It finally closed at 1,859 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of - 0.32% and a position of 228,441 lots (+583 lots). Among the top 20 main position - holding seats of the main contract, the long position decreased by 1,379 lots, and the short position increased by 2,589 lots. Specifically, Founder CIFCO had a net long position of +297 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of - 319 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,128 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of - 224 lots [2]. Spot - The upstream factory quotes showed a downward trend today, and trading volume decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,800 to 1,840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 19, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,499, remaining the same as the previous trading day [3]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. The basis for the May contract was 4 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 19, 2026, the national daily urea output was 216,800 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.43% [8]. Enterprise Inventory Data - As of March 20, 2026, according to Longzhong Information, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, an increase of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [12]. Downstream Data - From March 13 to March 20, according to Longzhong Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 59.31%, an increase of 5.96 percentage points from last week [14].