塑料日报：高开后震荡上行-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 19, 2026, the plastic opening rate dropped to around 87% due to new parking devices, and the domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics improved. However, downstream showed resistance to high prices, and spot transactions were weak. With the high - spirited collective sentiment of chemical products, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, refinery production cuts will increase further. The recent plastic prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's necessary to pay attention to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the situation in the Middle East [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 19, the plastic opening rate dropped to around 87% due to new parking devices like Shanghai Petrochemical's LDPE 2 line. As of the week of March 13, the PE downstream opening rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories decreased, and are currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities of Basf (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the prices of agricultural films in North, East and South China continued to rise. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics improved, downstream showed resistance to high prices, and spot transactions were weak. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, refinery production cuts will increase further, and plastic prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, increased positions and fluctuated upward. The lowest price was 8700 yuan/ton, the highest was 9147 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8916 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 4.49%. The position increased by 12,786 lots to 356,744 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 300 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8530 - 9170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10230 - 11260 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8490 - 9740 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 19, new parking devices such as Shanghai Petrochemical's LDPE 2 line led to a drop in the plastic opening rate to around 87%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the PE downstream opening rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories resumed work gradually but have not returned to the pre - holiday level, showing seasonal changes [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 840,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $113 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price rose $30 per ton to $1280 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also rose $30 per ton to $1280 per ton week - on - week [4]