原油日报：强势上涨-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA data shows that the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the destocking of refined oil products was significant, resulting in a slight increase in the overall oil product inventory [1][5]. - The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran, along with the near - halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for multiple days, have led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries, and the risk of crude oil price surges remains [1]. - Although measures such as the release of strategic oil reserves, relaxation of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil, and the resumption of Iraqi oil exports have alleviated short - term supply pressure, they are still insufficient to match the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The Middle - East situation is becoming increasingly tense, and frequent news about it has a great impact on crude oil prices. It is recommended to participate in the market with caution [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US, Israel, and Iran are in a state of mutual attacks. Iran has a large oil production and export volume. The Strait of Hormuz, a major crude - oil shipping route, has been nearly shut down for days, causing production cuts in Middle - Eastern countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% of the global supply [1]. - The US and Iran have no intention to cease fire currently. Iran's upper - stream oil and gas facilities were attacked on March 18th, and Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related oil and energy facilities in the region [1]. - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US is taking measures to relax sanctions to ease supply pressure, and Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the actual traffic is low [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude - oil futures contract, the 2605 contract, rose 8.48% to 814.9 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 776.3 yuan/ton, the highest at 823.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 5337 to 61,650 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA's latest short - term energy outlook predicts that the Brent crude - oil price in 2026 will be $78.84 per barrel (previously $57.69), and in 2027 it will be $64.47 per barrel (previously $53). Due to the Middle - East conflict, it is expected to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and drop to $80 per barrel in the third quarter [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, the EIA expects the global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and the global oil demand to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast [4]. - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It predicts that the global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 to 106.53 million barrels per day and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 to 107.87 million barrels per day [4]. - The IEA has significantly reduced the global crude - oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 0.85 million barrels per day to 0.64 million barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [4]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending March 13th, US crude - oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while gasoline and refined - oil inventories decreased significantly, and Cushing crude - oil inventories increased by 944,000 barrels [5]. - OPEC's average crude - oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela and Iraq [5]. - US crude - oil production in the week of March 13th decreased by 100,000 barrels per day to 13.668 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [5]. Consumption Data - The four - week average supply of US crude - oil products decreased to 21.041 million barrels per day, a 1.84% increase compared to the same period last year, with the over - average margin narrowing [6][8]. - Gasoline weekly production decreased by 5.55% to 8.728 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.749 million barrels per day, a 0.70% increase compared to the same period last year [8]. - Diesel weekly production increased by 8.22% to 4.399 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4.014 million barrels per day, a 1.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - The single - week supply of US crude - oil products continued to increase by 2.07% month - on - month, driven by the increase in diesel and other oil products [8].