甲醇日报：地缘局势下继续强势-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Methanol remains strong under the geopolitical situation. The futures market has skyrocketed, and the prices in the main producing areas have increased significantly. However, there are risks in short - term chasing of high prices, and attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line. The upper space still exists, and the current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of March 12, China's methanol production was 2,013,855 tons, a decrease of 3,610 tons from the previous week; the device capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.30%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.10%. The inventory of inland methanol sample enterprises decreased as expected. After the sharp increase in freight rates, the transport capacity became a little more relaxed. In the market of sharp price fluctuations caused by geopolitical conflicts, industry players were eager to cash in at high prices [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - On March 18, the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting to continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The State Administration for Market Regulation will intensify efforts to break local protection and market segmentation and rectify "involution - style" competition. US President Trump stated that the US was unaware of Israel's attack on Iranian facilities, and Israel would no longer take any action against the South Pars oil and gas field. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75% in March [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The Middle East situation is not over, and the short - term fluctuations of crude oil have intensified. Attention should be paid to risk control. Methanol should focus on the support of the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line. Currently, wait for opportunities after the callback. There are certain risks in short - term chasing of high prices, but there is still room for an upward trend. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked [3]