沪铜日报：通胀预期，铜价承压-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% and is unlikely to cut rates without further improvement in inflation. The shortage of copper resources supports copper prices, but the substitution of recycled copper has diminished. The output of electrolytic copper has increased, and the demand in the copper product sector has started to pick up. However, the terminal data is not optimistic, and new energy vehicle production and sales have declined. With the Fed's inaction, geopolitical tensions, and rising inflation expectations, the Shanghai copper market is under pressure, and it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, falling during the day [1][3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was -50 yuan/ton, and in South China was 80 yuan/ton. On March 18, 2026, the LME official price was $12,607/ton, and the spot premium was -$104/ton [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - Imports: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [1]. - Production: The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year [1]. - Processing Fees: As of March 16, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$60.12/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -6.10 cents/pound [6]. - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 306,400 tons, a decrease of 12,244 tons from the previous period. As of March 16, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 630 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 335,400 tons, an increase of 1,325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 588,700 short tons, an increase of 313 short tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Demand Side - Copper Product Sector: After entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the start-up rate of the copper product sector has started to pick up. In February, the start-up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month-on-month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 9.06 percentage points [1]. - Terminal Demand: The terminal data is not optimistic, and the feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively [1].