短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, iron ore is affected by multiple factors including supply and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If the macro - disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term [2] - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with a loose supply, a decline in molten iron production on the demand side, a delayed resumption of production, and an accumulation of port inventory. In the short - term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated during the day, closing at 807.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the position was 447,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.939 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 790, and the short - term resistance is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to face pressure near the upper resistance and enter a consolidation phase [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 1 to 793 yuan/ton, and Super Special Powder dropped 1 to 669 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 107.05 (- 0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and Spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures surface was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 18.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly contracted. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 31.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing an increase. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - Demand: There was a mismatch in the rhythm of blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The molten iron production decreased significantly month - on - month this period, while the steel mill profitability rate increased. After the Two Sessions, the molten iron production is likely to recover month - on - month, and the daily output of sintered ore increased. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro - economy entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were released, showing relatively good performance. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of external demand has been initially confirmed, while the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility of a continued high - oil - price environment, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the easing of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4]