PVC日报：高开后震荡运行-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased, and the downstream operating rate has recovered but is still lower than the same period last year. The export inquiry has improved, but the social inventory is still high, and the real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price will fluctuate strongly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The PVC2605 contract opened higher and then fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 5818 yuan/ton, the highest was 6084 yuan/ton, and it closed at 5860 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.39%. The position decreased by 24,311 lots to 831,069 lots [2] - On March 19th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in East China rose to 5780 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5860 yuan/ton. The current basis was -80 yuan/ton, weakening by 55 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a neutral to low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, still at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. In January - February 2026, real estate investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas all had significant year-on-year declines. The overall improvement of the real estate industry still takes time. As of the week of March 15th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 43.23% week-on-week, but it was still at a low level in the same period over the years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of March 12th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week-on-week to 1.4072 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to increase that week, remaining at a high level [6]