能源日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts show no sign of easing and have extended to direct attacks on energy infrastructure, pushing up the oil price that has been in a multi - day volatile pattern. However, due to the intensive market information and the large accumulated increase in oil prices, market sentiment is becoming cautious, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - The geopolitical situation has escalated, and the risk has spread from the logistics end to energy production facilities. The overall strong operation pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to change, and the low - sulfur fuel oil also has support [2]. - With the continuation of the war between the US, Israel and Iran and the attack on energy facilities, asphalt follows the rise of crude oil. With the marginal improvement of asphalt fundamentals and the boost of stronger crude oil, BU is expected to maintain an upward trend [2]. 3. Summaries by Categories Crude Oil - Night - session oil prices rose significantly, with the Brent - WTI spread reaching a 11 - year high. Even though the freight from the US Gulf Coast to Europe has increased by 38% after the conflict, the arbitrage window still exists [1]. - On March 18, Iran's giant gas field Pars was attacked by Israel, and Iran threatened to retaliate and strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, increasing concerns about further disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East [1]. - EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, while refined oil inventories decreased more than expected. Iraq and the Kurdish region reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the pipeline, but the pipeline transportation volume is still far from that during normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Trump announced a 60 - day temporary exemption from the Jones Act to reduce domestic energy transportation costs. Strategic petroleum reserves are mainly for emergency buffering and face restocking needs after release [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The geopolitical situation has escalated, and the risk has spread from the logistics end to energy production facilities. Even if the Strait passage problem is alleviated, supply recovery will face a longer cycle [2]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, although Asia's imports from Russia have increased, Russian high - sulfur resources are limited and cannot fully offset the reduction in Middle East supply. With the approaching of the summer power - generation peak season, the power - generation demand for fuel oil is expected to further increase [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the bunker demand in Singapore has significantly increased, while the supply increment in the market is limited. Coupled with the strong refined oil crack spread, it provides support for low - sulfur fuel oil from the component end [2]. Asphalt - With the continuation of the war between the US, Israel and Iran and the attack on energy facilities, night - session oil prices rose significantly, and asphalt followed the rise of crude oil [2]. - The refinery production plan in April decreased to 862,000 tons, which is at a low level in recent years. The sample refinery shipment volume increased week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year decline has narrowed [2]. - Refinery inventories remained flat week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years; social inventories were basically flat year - on - year, and the overall commercial inventory pressure is not large [2].