降息收敛叠加风偏恶化，贵金属大幅调整

Group 1: Investment Rating - None mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Interest rate cut convergence and deterioration of risk appetite led to a significant adjustment in precious metals [2] - Geopolitical conflicts causing inflation and delaying interest rate cuts are the core factors suppressing precious metal prices, and the March FOMC meeting strengthened this logic [4] - Short - term risk prevention is recommended, while long - term trends are optimistic. Pay attention to the rhythm of stagflation trading and the interest rate path guidance after the换届 of the Fed Chairman [5] Group 3: Summary by Key Content Precious Metal Price Movements - On March 19, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,984 yuan/kg, a decline of 10.35%, and the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,062 yuan/g, a decline of 4.64%. The spot price of London gold dropped below $4,700/ounce, and the spot price of London silver dropped below $70/ounce [4] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Prices - Geopolitical conflicts have shifted market expectations from a blitz to a long - term war, with rising energy prices and a negative impact on precious metal prices. The March FOMC meeting showed that most members supported maintaining the policy interest rate, and the Fed raised GDP and inflation expectations, while the market priced in a delay in interest rate cuts [4] - Deterioration of risk appetite led to a decline in the equity market, which dragged down commodities. When the equity market drops significantly, there is a risk of selling precious metals due to liquidity squeeze [5] Investment Suggestions - In the short term, focus on risk prevention as precious metals may experience weak adjustments, and beware of sharp declines due to liquidity squeeze. In the long term, the decline of the US dollar's status may benefit gold, while silver's elasticity may be restricted. Pay attention to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the impact of the Fed Chairman's换届 [5]