银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price decreased due to the geopolitical situation and Fed's stance, with the key support level broken and the center of gravity shifting down. The alumina price is under pressure with new capacity coming online. The aluminum price is dragged down by the financial attribute due to the Middle - East situation. Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have their respective price trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost [1][3][8][14] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 94,420 yuan/ton, down 4.52%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 8,491 lots to 584,000 lots. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the spot market was 95,600 yuan/ton, down 3,360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Alumina: The alumina 2505 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 3,027 yuan/ton, and the weighted positions increased by 1,330 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 655 yuan to 24,180 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 39,600 lots [14] - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc 2605 fell 3.11% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index positions increased by 3,983 lots to 209,700 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [23] - Lead: The Shanghai lead 2605 fell 1.59% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index positions increased by 2,146 lots to 135,100 lots. The spot market trading was light [27] - Nickel: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2605 fell 3,990 to 131,550 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 16,909 to 330,296 lots. The spot premiums of different nickel types changed [32] - Stainless Steel: The main contract of stainless steel SS2605 fell 200 to 13,855 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 9,613 to 182,402 lots. The spot prices of different resources were within certain ranges [38] - Tin: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 345,730 yuan/ton, down 24,490 yuan/ton or 6.61%, and the positions increased by 2,114 lots to 80,600 lots. The spot price continued to decline [41] - Carbonate Lithium: The main contract of carbonate lithium 2605 fell 9,700 to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 25,270 to 595,501 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased [55] 3.2 Important Information - Inflation and Fed Policy: The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, a one - year high. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, raised the inflation expectation, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year [2][15] - Geopolitical Situation: The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large - scale missile attack on oil and energy facilities related to the US in the region [15][19] - Inventory Information: As of March 19, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week - on - week to 523,100 tons; the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased to 266,100 tons; the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory reached 78,000 tons as of March 16 [2][24][29] - Industry News: Guinea plans to cut bauxite exports in early April; some new alumina production lines in China are expected to be put into trial production; GlobalData said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach nearly 6 terawatts by 2031 [9][48] 3.3 Logic Analysis - Copper: The geopolitical situation and Fed's stance led to a decrease in copper price. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the downstream pricing enthusiasm declined [3] - Alumina: Guinea's bauxite export policy needs to be monitored. The new domestic alumina capacity needs time to be fully released, and the subsequent pressure on alumina comes from the supply side [10] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The Middle - East situation led to concerns about economic slowdown, and the financial attribute dragged down the aluminum price [16] - Zinc: The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to macro factors. The domestic refined zinc supply increased, but the demand recovery was insufficient. However, the expected reduction of overseas smelters and low LME inventory provided some support [25] - Lead: The increase in social inventory and inflow of imported lead suppressed the lead price, but the loss of secondary lead smelters provided some support [30] - Nickel: The weakening copper price and the tense Middle - East situation affected the nickel price. The nickel ore price was firm, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure [35] - Stainless Steel: The overseas manufacturing contraction led to some orders flowing back to China, but the concern about global economic recession still dominated the price trend [39] - Tin: The impact of Indonesia's potential tin export ban was limited. The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the weak downstream demand affected the tin price [43] - Carbonate Lithium: The negative growth of new - energy vehicle sales in March and the expected production of Jiangxi Xikeng Mine affected the supply - demand relationship, and the price center shifted down [57] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Copper: Unilateral: The price broke the key support level and the center of gravity shifted down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5][6][7] - Alumina: Unilateral: New capacity is coming soon, and the alumina price is under pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [12] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Unilateral: Weak operation with the sector; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [17][18] - Zinc: Unilateral: The zinc price may be weak in the short term due to macro and fundamental factors; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [26] - Lead: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [31] - Nickel: Unilateral: The price fluctuates weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36][37] - Stainless Steel: Unilateral: Wait for the macro situation to stabilize; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41] - Tin: Unilateral: The tin price remains weak; Options: Wait and see [44] - Carbonate Lithium: Unilateral: The oscillation range moves down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [58][59]