美联储维持利率不变，关注央行超级日

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report emphasizes the need to pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation, the Fed's decision on interest rates, and the domestic Two Sessions. The Iran - US conflict has significantly impacted the Middle East's energy and production facilities, and the continuous rise in oil prices has affected related sectors. The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the market's expectations for interest - rate cuts have changed. During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds afterward [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran - US conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day "end - of - war" expectation, with the tail - risk rising sharply. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East, disrupted the supply chain, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict mainly affects the crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and the rising oil prices have also driven the oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, causing concerns about inflation and economic recession. The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the market's bet on interest - rate cuts this year has decreased [1]. Domestic Two Sessions - The 2026 Government Work Report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The general public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan. An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued. Historically, during the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index recovers afterward. In terms of fundamentals, the US February non - farm payrolls decreased unexpectedly, while inflation exceeded expectations. China's February economic data shows mixed performance, with exports and imports growing, and the decline in real - estate investment and sales narrowing [2]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - positive correlation between the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices last week is worthy of attention. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude - oil reserve. The rise in oil prices has driven the oil - chemical sector, and the EU has simplified some natural - gas import rules. The oil - seed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black - metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock - index futures, it is recommended to buy on dips for stock indexes, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. Important News - Iran warns of attacks on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. The EU simplifies non - Russian natural - gas import rules, and Russia considers early gas cut - off to Europe. Iran's gas and oil facilities are attacked. The US February PPI rises unexpectedly, and the Fed maintains the interest rate. Powell makes statements about his tenure [5].