油价美元双破百，人民币何去何从？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The short - term high - level two - way fluctuation of the US dollar against the RMB will continue. It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB will fluctuate in the range of 6.85–6.95. If oil prices fall and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz eases, the RMB is expected to rise to around 6.85. The market's consensus expectation is that the RMB will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in 2026, with the exchange - rate expectation bottoming out in the 6.80 range, and the forecasts converging towards 6.80 in Q1 2027 [33][36][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB options shows an appreciation trend of the US dollar, with the call - end volatility higher than the put - end [4] - The term structure of the 3 - month USDCNH options implied volatility and the implied volatility of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB options with a delta of 5 are presented [6] - The premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's US dollar against the RMB futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are shown [9] Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor fluctuates around 0 [12] 2. Fundamentals and Views Event - Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the conflict may become long - term. The core issues include the policies after Mujtaba came to power, whether civilian facilities will continue to be damaged, and the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The event affects various commodities, and there is still a gap in the oil supply even after the release of oil reserves [20][22] Macro - US Economy - Inflation is relatively smooth. The US CPI in February was flat, with service inflation falling and non - service inflation rising. Considering oil prices, the CPI may rise to 3.6% by May [23][24] - The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts has been postponed, and its policy stance has become marginally hawkish. The threshold for interest - rate cuts has been significantly raised, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts within the year has been compressed. The tail - risk has shifted from "no interest - rate cut" to "whether to raise interest rates again" [25][27] - The pace of interest - rate cuts in the US economy has slowed. Employment data is weak, inflation is rising due to oil prices, and economic expectations have been revised upwards, but the real - estate sector needs improvement [28] - Chinese Economy - The Chinese economy shows structural differentiation. In the context of the Spring Festival date shift, considering the data from January - February, infrastructure investment has continued to grow due to early - stage policy efforts; commodity retail sales have declined under a high - base effect, but catering revenue has rebounded; the real - estate sector is still under pressure, waiting for price stabilization; the loan situation shows that the household sector is weak while the corporate sector has improved; exports continue to support the economy [29][31] Overall View - Fundamentally, the economic expectation difference is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest - rate difference is neutral, and the uncertainty of trade policies is neutral. The core view is that the US dollar against the RMB is expected to oscillate in the 6.85–6.95 range [36] Expectation - In 2026, the market's consensus expectation is that the RMB will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. The average exchange - rate expectation bottoms out in the 6.80 range, and the institutional game range is very wide (6.50–7.10). In Q1 2027, the forecasts converge towards 6.80 [40]