思摩尔国际（06969）：2025年业绩点评：全年收入创历史新高，业务多点开花

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company has achieved record-high annual revenue, with multiple business segments showing positive progress, including heated non-combustion products, vaporized e-cigarettes, and medical aerosol business [2][9] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from 11.8 billion RMB in 2024 to 21.3 billion RMB by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [3][10] - The net profit forecast for 2026-2028 is adjusted to 1.05 billion RMB, 1.82 billion RMB, and 2.18 billion RMB respectively, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,799 million RMB in 2024 to 21,276 million RMB in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 21%, 15%, 14%, and 14% respectively [3][10] - Gross profit is expected to increase from 4,412 million RMB in 2024 to 7,245 million RMB in 2028, with a gross margin of 34.1% in 2025 [3][10] - The company's net profit is forecasted to decline to 1,052 million RMB in 2026 before rebounding to 1,820 million RMB in 2027 and 2,180 million RMB in 2028, with a notable increase in profit margins in the later years [3][10] Business Performance - In the second half of 2025, revenue from enterprise customers reached 6.605 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while retail customer revenue was 1.637 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year [9] - The company’s HNB (Heated Non-Combustion) revenue exceeded 1.2 billion RMB in 2025, supported by the successful launch of high-end products in key markets [9] - The traditional vaporization business is expected to benefit from global regulatory changes, enhancing brand market share [9] Market Position - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the heated non-combustion industry, benefiting from long-term R&D investments that create a strong technological moat [9] - The company is expected to achieve a target price of 12.00 HKD based on a PE ratio of 65.0X for 2026, reflecting a premium valuation due to its leading market position and growth potential [9]