卓创资讯早盘提示-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Short [1][3] - Egg: High Short [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, rising temperatures and policy - grain auctions may ease the tight supply - demand situation and pressure spot prices to decline. In the long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists, and pig prices may remain low. In the medium - term, supply pressure will ease from April to June. In the long - term, supply pressure exists before August, and the expected high of far - month contracts is lowered [1][3]. - Egg: In the short - term, egg prices are stable and strong, but supply pressure is postponed. In the long - term, the increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - The corn futures fluctuated and consolidated last night. The main 2605 contract fell 0.17% to 2380 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable. Northeast deep - processing purchase average price was 2253 yuan/ton, and North China's was 2452 yuan/ton [1]. - North - South port prices were weakly stable. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2350 - 2370 yuan/ton, and Shekou Port's transaction price was 2490 yuan/ton [1]. - The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 140 yuan/ton [1]. - The number of corn futures warehouse receipts was 78333, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative corn import volume was 540,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons compared to the same period last year [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Rising temperatures and policy - grain auctions may ease the tight supply - demand situation and pressure spot prices [1]. - Long - term: The pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading idea in the medium - term. The 2605 contract's pressure is at 2400, the first support is 2350 - 2370, and the second support is 2300 - 2330 [1]. Pig Market Review - The pig futures continued to decline. The main 2605 contract fell 2.18% to 10335 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the 19th, the national average pig price was 9.98 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1]. - As of December, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, 101.6% of the normal level [1]. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased, and the number of pig slaughterings increased before March. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased, and supply pressure will ease from April [1]. - As of March 19, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 125.9 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg from the previous week [1]. - On March 19, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.31 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [1]. - As of March 19, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts was 1051, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [1]. - On the 19th, relevant departments required pig enterprises to report production targets and make reduction commitments [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists, and pig prices may remain low [3]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure will ease from April to June, with the impact of epidemics being the key focus [3]. - Long - term: Supply pressure exists before August, and the expected high of far - month contracts is lowered [3]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. For the 2605 contract, the support is 10000 - 10300, and the pressure is 10800 - 11000; for the 2607 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11800 - 12000; for the 2609 contract, the support is 12000 - 12300, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [3]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures fluctuated downward. The main 2605 contract fell 0.85% to 3367 yuan/500KG [3]. Important Information - On the 19th, the national average egg price in the main production areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main sales areas, it was 3.35 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - On the 19th, the average inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous day; in the circulation link, it was 1.17 days, unchanged [3]. - On the 19th, the average price of old hens was 5.3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of March 19, the weekly culling age of old hens was 505 days, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In February, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.35 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in March is 1.342 billion [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: Inventory is relatively stable but lower than last year. Egg prices are stable and strong, but supply pressure is postponed, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [3]. - Long - term: The increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3]. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of near - month contracts. For the 2604 contract, the pressure is 3290 - 3300, the first support is 3250, and if it breaks 3250, the support moves down to 3150 - 3200; for the 2605 contract, if it breaks 3400, the support moves down to 3300 - 3340 [3].