贵金属：贵金属日报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran war has made global central banks vigilant about inflation that may be triggered by rising crude oil prices. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on March 18, 2026, decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75%. The possibility of a rate hike in the next step was mentioned, and the dot - plot maintained the expectation of one rate cut each in the current and next years, but the distribution was more hawkish than before. On Thursday, central banks in Japan, the UK, the Eurozone, Switzerland, and Sweden also decided to keep their current interest rates unchanged, putting pressure on precious metal prices. The strategy suggests a cautious bearish view, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 970 - 1000 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 16300 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 4.99% to 1026.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 17660.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 1.58% to 4678.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 3.20% to 73.50 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.25%, and the US dollar index was 99.23 [2] - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75%, with Director Milan voting against and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. On Thursday, central banks in Japan, the UK, Europe, Switzerland, and Sweden also announced keeping interest rates unchanged, while the Brazilian central bank made a hawkish 25 - basis - point rate cut, lower than market expectations. These central banks said they would be vigilant about rising energy prices, fearing an inflation wave in the broader economy [2] - The US Treasury issued a new general license related to Russian crude oil, allowing the delivery and sale of Russian - produced crude oil and petroleum products loaded before March 12. The license is valid until April 11, 2026, Eastern Time, with terms basically the same as before but explicitly excluding transactions involving North Korea, Cuba, and Crimea [2] - US Defense Secretary Hedgeseth held a briefing on the US - Israel strike on Iran, stating that the US military operations were proceeding as planned with no end - time schedule. The Department of Defense has requested the White House to approve over 200 billion US dollars in military operation funds against Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Zamir also indicated in internal discussions that Israel's military operations against Iran were not yet half - completed, and senior Israeli officers also hinted at no cease - fire schedule [2] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - COMEX Gold: The open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 1.02% to 41.40 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.27% to 997 tons [5] - LBMA Gold: The closing price decreased by 2.93% to 4869.95 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume increased by 102.70% to 43.74 million lots [5] - SHFE Gold: The open interest decreased by 1.81% to 30.60 million lots, the inventory remained unchanged at 106.85 tons, and the precipitated funds flowed out by 6.36% to 52 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D: The trading volume increased by 59.89% to 75.75 tons, and the open interest increased by 4.71% to 234.68 tons [5] - COMEX Silver: The open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 1.88% to 11.55 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.12% to 10410 tons [5] - LBMA Silver: The closing price decreased by 2.01% to 78.60 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume increased by 41.43% to 125.48 million lots [5] - SHFE Silver: The open interest decreased by 1.33% to 47.21 million lots, the inventory increased by 5.17% to 364.87 tons, and the precipitated funds decreased by 11.19% to 22.924 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D: The trading volume decreased by 73.11% to 448.61 tons, and the open interest increased by 0.10% to 2902.818 tons [5] 3.3 ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs: The iShare US holding remained unchanged at 482.28 tons, GBS UK at 30.53 tons, PHAU UK at 53.81 tons, and GOLD UK at 29.96 tons. SGBS Switzerland's holding decreased by 0.13% to 35.07 tons [65] - Silver ETFs: The ETPMAG Australia holding remained unchanged at 483.10 tons, PSLV Canada at 6747.37 tons, and CEF Canada at 1583.02 tons. The closing price of silver ETFs decreased by 4.13% to 68.70 US dollars, the trading volume increased by 34.51% to 4437.79 million shares, and the precipitated funds decreased by 2.81% to 38.563 billion US dollars [65]