中泰期货晨会纪要-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures may rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to trading volume; the bond market gradually has odds, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side [12][13]. - In the black sector, for steel, short - term long positions should take profits at high prices, and the previously sold wide - straddle strategy should be held; for iron ore, the sold wide - straddle strategy should be held, and short - selling operations should be carried out at high prices later; for coking coal and coke, the prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; for ferroalloys, it is recommended to go short on ferrosilicon at high prices, and manganese silicon should be observed; for soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see [15][16][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, copper prices will fluctuate under pressure in the short - term; zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset; lead should be treated with a volatile mindset; lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; industrial silicon fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and operations should be cautious [22][24][26][28][30]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton prices are under short - term adjustment; sugar prices may rebound in a volatile manner; for eggs, it is recommended to go short on rebounds; apples may run strongly; for corn, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices; jujubes may fluctuate weakly; for live pigs, it is advisable to go short on near - month contracts [33][35][39][41][42][43][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the supply reduction risk is significant; fuel oil will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations; plastics may fluctuate strongly in the short - term; for rubber, unilateral operations should be cautious; synthetic rubber may maintain high volatility; methanol may be slightly strong in the short - term; for caustic soda, it is necessary to grasp the market rhythm; asphalt prices follow oil prices; PVC may be strong in the short - term but with callback risks; for the polyester industry chain, a cautiously bullish mindset can be maintained; liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain strong; for pulp, it can be tried to go long at low prices; for logs, the fundamentals are expected to stabilize; for urea, short positions can be arranged according to the trend of chemical futures [46][47][49][50][51][52][54][55][56][57][59][60][61][62]. 3. Key Points by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to escalate. Iran declares the war has entered a "new stage", while the US and Israel make relevant statements. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil and release strategic oil reserves. Iran warns of stronger counter - attacks if energy facilities are attacked again [8]. - Central banks around the world announce interest rate decisions. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Swedish Riksbank all maintain interest rates unchanged. There are expectations of interest rate hikes due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict [9]. - China's central bank deploys key work for the year, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining market stability, and promoting the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms [9]. - China's fiscal revenue and expenditure in January - February show that revenue increases slightly, while expenditure grows faster. The securities trading stamp duty increases significantly [10]. - The US approves a military sales plan worth about $16.5 billion to the UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan. The US Federal debt exceeds $39 trillion, and it is predicted to reach $40 trillion before the mid - term elections [10][11]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is in shock adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index falls 1.39% to 4006.55 points. The short - term may rebound, and attention should be paid to trading volume [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market gradually has odds, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side. The central bank may be preparing for the next interest rate cut by reducing bank liability costs [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel demand is weak, with real - estate sales and new construction data not optimistic, and infrastructure project progress slow. However, steel mills' current order situation is okay, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, with inventory changes and production adjustments [15][16]. - Steel short - term long positions should take profits at high prices, and the previously sold wide - straddle strategy should be held; iron ore's sold wide - straddle strategy should be held, and short - selling operations should be carried out at high prices later [16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply returns to normal, and steel mill iron - making output will increase slightly. In the short - term, coking coal prices may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [18]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are affected by factory pricing and market sentiment. It is recommended to go short on ferrosilicon at high prices, and manganese silicon should be observed [19]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply remains high, and attention should be paid to supply stability. Glass supply has cold - repair and ignition expectations, and the demand side needs to recover. It is advisable to wait and see [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflation pressure, and copper prices will fluctuate under pressure in the short - term. Fundamentally, downstream demand recovers, and inventory starts to decline. In the long - term, the tight supply of ore raw materials supports copper prices [22][23]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Zinc inventory decreases, and prices are treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset. Attention should be paid to the possible rebound after a significant decline [24]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventory reaches a high level, but after the price drops, smelting enterprises are reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream procurement increases. It is advisable to observe the price rebound strength and treat it with a volatile mindset [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply and demand weaken marginally in the short - term, and it may fluctuate weakly under the background of poor macro - sentiment [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and operations should be cautious [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton prices are under short - term adjustment due to increased imports and external conflicts. The global cotton supply and demand situation is complex, and domestic cotton inventory starts to decline. Market expectations for consumption in March and April are high [33][34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Sugar prices may rebound in a volatile manner. Global sugar supply and demand have different expectations, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure. The price is affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply [35][36][38]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg prices may be strong in the short - term, but the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices of high - quality goods may run strongly. With low inventory and increasing demand for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market is expected to be stable and strong [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices are at a relatively high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy - related grain supply [42][43]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may fluctuate weakly. After the Spring Festival, consumption enters the off - season, and high inventory remains [43]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern of live pigs is "supply is strong and demand is weak". The spot price is under pressure, and it is advisable to go short on near - month contracts [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fluctuate due to attacks on energy facilities. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a significant supply reduction risk, but the geopolitical premium may decline [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [47][48]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefin prices may be supported by geopolitical factors and upstream production cuts in the short - term, but the spot market is weak [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports. It is advisable to be cautious in unilateral operations. Attention should be paid to the price difference and the opportunity of selling put options after full - scale tapping [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices are driven by cost and may maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to raw material supply and energy price changes [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol supply and demand improve slightly in the short - term. It may be strong due to geopolitical factors, but there is a possibility of callback if the war eases [52][53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda is driven by supply reduction and export growth, while the decline is driven by high - premium futures and more warehouse receipts. It is necessary to grasp the market rhythm [54]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows oil prices, and the key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - PVC may be strong in the short - term due to production cuts, but there are callback risks if the market sentiment turns bad [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain can be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment [57]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain strong, but relatively weaker than crude oil. The supply risk may be alleviated, and demand is expected to increase [59]. 3.6.12 Pulp - Pulp prices may rebound due to warehouse receipt cancellation and port inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to inventory and price changes of finished products [60]. 3.6.13 Logs - Log demand is recovering, and the price is supported by cost. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory [61]. 3.6.14 Urea - Urea is affected by overseas factors and domestic policies. It is advisable to arrange short positions according to the trend of chemical futures [62].